Bunker Blog: 2. It is all a big conspiracy

There are plenty of perfectly reasonable things to fear. Essentially, human beings are already way out on a flimsy limb. Of course, we also have a saw and we are furiously attempting to cut that very limb.

Unreasonable

With all the things that a person could reasonably worry about, you'd think that would be enough. But, instead, we have decided to just make a bunch of things up to shroud the future in an even murkier fog.

Have you heard?

• COVID-19 is caused by 5G cell communications
• COVID-19 is a bioweapon that was developed by the Chinese government for the purpose of population control
• COVID-19 is a bioweapon that was developed in a Chinese lab secretly funded by US virologists
• COVID-19 was developed by the deep state and spread via aircraft contrails to destabilize the current US administration
• COVID-19 is a glorified flu bug that the media is sensationalizing to make the president look bad

 What is so appealing about conspiracy theories to so many people? This stuff spreads like wildfire.

People in Europe are literally burning down cell towers because they believe that advanced fifth generation (5G) cellular communications are causing COVID-19.

Why would people believe this garbage?

I'll give you three reasons, though the subject is complex. The reasons that I grabbed here will help us understand the more religious aspects - how the religious ideas develop and are accepted

1. Proportionality Bias

 To put it succinctly, proportionality bias is the innate belief that big events must be caused equally big events. Something that changed history must have been caused by something historically significant.

It is difficult for people with proportionality bias to fathom that the September 11th attacks were perpetrated by several dudes with box cutters and delusions. It is much more satisfying to see it as an "inside job", conjured by powerful and mysterious villains.

Even in small things we can experience proportionality bias. You are playing a board game, you need to roll a seven. You pick up the set of dice and gently blow on them, then use both hands to aggressively shake the dice. You toss the dice with a flair of the hand. When they stop rattling, voila: A seven!

Now did exhaling on a set of dice cause the seven? Did anything else you did change the outcome? No. The fact is that seven has a higher likelihood of occurring than any other number. But, we are not satisfied with dumb luck. We need the meaningful result to be caused by an equally meaningful cause.

2. Intentionality Bias

  Everything that happens, happens for a reason. There are no accidents. Intentionality  Bias is the human tendency to read into acts that are seemingly random.

Some people experience a natural occurrence, experience its reality, and move on. Others have need to see the reason for the occurrence and the meaning of the occurrence. They read intention and purpose into things that may or may not require such interpretation.

Now, this is a handy skill when dealing with people. Those who do not have intentionality bias can tend to be duped or misread social situations. To read into another person's intentions or motivations is a vital social skill for most people.

However, this bias can also cause us to completely misunderstand situations. For instance, I was in Grand Rapids last year, walking down a busy street. Some dude was walking toward me, staring at his phone. Collision. Apologies exchanged and on we went. But, I knew what was really going on. Within seconds of clearing the crash scene, I reached in my pocket. My wallet was still there. I've seen enough movies. I would not be victimized by a light fingered thief and his meet cute.

Did I read that situation correctly?

What about the person on TV news thanking god for the fact that the tornado had destroyed every house in their neighborhood but one - theirs?

"The twister blew apart my neighbors house, hopped up and over mine, and slammed apart my other neighbors house! Praise the Lord!"

You're cleaning out a closet. You move an old box and out falls a photograph. You pick it up and see the picture of a deceased relative. Suddenly, you realize what day it is. It is that same relative's birthday. Coincidence?

 Intentionality Bias may help us understand social situations, but they are a pretty bad way to understand a mechanical phenomenon. The tree that fell in the woods, just after you passed by probably wasn't being held up by a guardian angel. The phone call from a person who you were just thinking about was going to happen despite what you were thinking about. The white trails behind the jets far overhead have more to do with water vapors than the Deep State trying to sprinkle coronavirus on you. 

3. Pattern Searching 

Your brain is always working hard to make sense of all the stimulus around you. That sounds like a good thing and it is. Your brain is able to recognize patterns in the data that it is always collecting and then use those patterns to predict things to come.

If I gave you a series of numbers, your brain can find the pattern and predict what would happen if the series continues. 1331 1331 1331 1331 1331 ... You definitely can anticipate what will come next.

Our ancestors used this ability to anticipate the actions of predators and prey. They could avoid dangerous situations and discover advantageous opportunities. This constant search for patterns can also work against us. If you give the brain's pattern searching engine just a bit of a nudge, then an operatic masterpiece can turn into a song about how green chalk tastes like hippies:

Our pattern searching makes us really bad at some simple mathematics. If I flip a coin twenty times, and the coin lands tails twenty times in a row,  the twenty first coin flip is just as likely heads as it is tails. All the coin flips were 50/50. Whatever happened before has no bearing on the coin flip result. But, gamblers often bet on a "streak" and will bet that the pattern will continue. They are just as likely to see that heads is "due" and will bet the opposite of the pattern.

It is all dumb. It is still 50/50. Nothing is more or less likely to happen.

When you combine pattern searching with proportionality bias and intentionality bias, you can quickly get an overheated brain. Take that same brain and unleash it on a newspaper. It will come up with all kinds of disproportions, intentions, and patterns.

On days that Garfield eats lasagna, a homicide occurs. Coincidence?

Or, what if you have been told all your life that the End is near. What if you had been told that when you see certain things start to happen, then you could be assured that you were living in the final days of the human race. All of a sudden, the things that you see happening in the world everyday seem less random, and more significant. They seem more ominous.

What if the events of the world were caused by powerful forces and comprehensible only for those with the secret knowledge?

I've got to admit, that is an appealing way to look at the world.

A common 20th century adage is less appealing:  "Life is just one damned thing after another."

The pattern-seeking, proportion and intention biased mind is more satisfied with a story about cosmic forces manipulating the events of our lives. We prefer this to one damned thing after another. So, the story - complex and unlikely as it is - pulls us in. It changes our perspective. It gives us something to believe in.